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Thursday, December 12, 2019

  
 
Richard Markuson

Will Bloomberg be the Democrats' Salvation?
 
Since entering the presidential race just a few weeks ago, Michael Bloomberg has spent $100 million on campaign ads. That's more than the top-polling Democrats have spent all year combined. But so far, this gush of money has resulted in only a modest change in the polls. According to a recent poll, Bloomberg is at 6 percent nationally - behind the top four Democratic candidates - but ahead of the rest of the field.
 
Bloomberg - whose net worth is estimated to be roughly $55 billion - is also building ground operations in the states, offering prospective field organizers salaries well above the going rate, according to The Washington Post. He is trying something that typically hasn't worked in the modern campaign era - bypassing the early nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada - and banking on a strong showing in the delegate-rich states that vote on Super Tuesday and beyond.
 
Previous candidates who've tried to skip or downplay the early contests - such as another former New York mayor, Rudy Giuliani - quickly found themselves marginalized and unable to generate momentum.
 
But none of those candidates had Mr. Bloomberg's resources.
 
Some analysts are speculating that the fragmented nature of today's Democratic electorate could give Bloomberg an opening. The same four candidates - Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg - have been at the top of the polls all year, though they have traded places at various times. Each is strong with different factions of voters - whether it's seniors, young people, college-educated white voters, African Americans or Hispanics. No one has been able to grow their support beyond 20-25%.
 
"Typically, the Democratic winner in Iowa parlays that victory into dominant status. That was the winning playbook for Barack Obama in 2008 and John Kerry in 2004," National Journal's Josh Kraushaar recently wrote. "It's not looking likely that dynamic will repeat itself in 2020."
 
If no clear frontrunner emerges out of the four early states, it would create a wide-open contest going into Super Tuesday. Bloomberg appears to be positioning himself for just such a scenario. Just don't look for much coverage in BusinessWeek!
 
Here is what the start of 2020 looks like:
 
February 3: Iowa caucuses
February 3: California ballots mailed to requested voters by mail (VBMs) and all voters in Voters Choice Act counties (Los Angeles is modified [VCA] and ballots don't go to all voters)
February 11: New Hampshire primary
February 22: Nevada caucuses
February 29: South Carolina caucuses
March 3: Super Tuesday: Primary elections in fourteen states including California, plus American Samoa and Democrats abroad
 
Incidentally, Bloomberg is in California this week to promote his candidacy. He is expected to be endorsed by Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs, who may also be named a national co-chair. Tubbs brings an important African-American voice to Bloomberg, who has apologized for his "stop and frisk" policing policy while he was NYC mayor. The policy has been criticized for targeting black and Latino residents without probable cause.